Management view

Gas is driving the cost curve; India is leaning harder on imported urea.

A one-screen read of the indicators that matter most to fertilizer producers, traders, crop protection companies and investors in the sector.

Prices through Sep 2026 · India data through FY2025–26

Urea, FOB Middle East$407.5/t−52% from Apr 2026 peak of $856.9

DAP, FOB US Gulf$800.6/t+28% vs Feb 2026; highest month of 2026

Natural gas, Europe (TTF)$25.42/MMBtu+113% vs 2025 average of $11.96

Urea import share of supply26.1%+10.5 pp vs FY2024-25 (15.6%)

Market implications

Prologue's reading of the latest data, by segment

Prologue analysis

Urea

Supply is tightening at home

Imports rose to 26.1% of India's urea supply in FY2025-26 while plants ran above nameplate capacity. Supply balance, utilisation and capacity additions are the indicators to watch.

Feedstock

Gas costs are rising faster than urea prices

Global gas benchmarks climbed through Q3 2026 while urea held near $400/t. For gas-based producers, gas pricing and supply terms carry more weight than usual.

Phosphates

Phosphate inputs are getting dearer

DAP at $800.6/t and phosphate rock off its plateau point to firm landed costs for P-based products. NBS rates for the coming season are the policy signal to watch.

Fertilizer and gas benchmarks, 2026

Monthly averages · indexed, Feb 2026 = 100

Prologue signals

What moved in the market

Prologue analysis

Feedstock

European gas has doubled against its 2025 average

TTF reached $25.42/MMBtu in September. Asian LNG is up less (to $14.25), but the spread sets the cost floor for marginal ammonia and urea capacity worldwide.

Urea market

The spring urea spike has fully unwound

Middle East urea peaked at $856.9/t in April and has held near $400/t since July, even as gas prices rose. Higher gas costs are not passing through to urea prices, which squeezes producers that buy gas at market rates.

Supply balance

India imported 83% more urea in FY2025-26

Imports rose to 103.5 lakh tonnes while domestic output fell 4.4%. Imports now meet about a quarter of supply.

Crop nutrition

Phosphate costs keep climbing

DAP is at its highest level of the year and phosphate rock has moved off its long plateau to $170/t. Landed costs for P-based products are likely to stay firm.

India urea supply

Lakh tonnes

ProductionImports

Regional opportunity

Top five of ten states · index /100

Method demo

Placeholder states showing how the index works. Client engagements score real states on published consumption, crop and supply data.

Coverage in a client platform

What a full engagement monitors

Fertilizer and feedstock price series	15
Agrochemical active ingredients	15
Companies benchmarked	30
Priority states	10
Policy and industry developments	Weekly
Prologue Intelligence Note	Monthly

Sources: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Feb–Sep 2026); Government of India parliamentary disclosures (FY2023–FY2026). Derived indicators: Prologue.

Fertilizer & raw material prices

Every benchmark, on one scale, with its source.

International benchmarks from the World Bank, read alongside India's landed import values and notified prices in the full build.

Latest month Sep 2026
Updated monthly on publication

Price history

Series

Urea feedstock cost explorer

Gas cost per tonne of urea against the market price

Prologue model

Gas price assumption, $/MMBtu

14.25

Set to:

Gas cost per tonne of urea
Urea, FOB Middle East (Sep 2026)	$407.5
Urea benchmark less illustrative gas cost

Assumes an energy norm of 5.5 Gcal per tonne of urea (about 21.8 MMBtu), a typical figure for gas-based plants. Illustrative only: not any company's contracted gas cost or plant efficiency. The difference is not a margin; it excludes other production costs, logistics, and the subsidy and pricing arrangements under which Indian urea is sold. Client platforms use each company's own assumptions.

Price series register

The 15 standard series, with status on this page. Row 11 is a grouped set of notified prices, updated on each notification; USD/INR is shown as context and not counted.

#	Series	Basis	Latest	vs 2025 avg	Source	On this page

Sources: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Feb–Sep 2026). Gas-cost scenarios are illustrative; other price series indicate proposed coverage.

India urea balance

Plants are running above nameplate, and imports are filling the gap.

Official production and import data, converted into the indicators management actually uses: import dependence and capacity utilisation.

Latest year FY2025-26
Parliament replies, Department of Fertilizers

Urea production FY26293.3lakh t−4.4% vs FY25 (306.7)

Urea imports FY26103.5lakh t+83% vs FY25 (56.5)

Capacity utilisation FY26108.8%Output 293.3 vs capacity 269.4 lakh t

Urea sales FY25388lakh tRecord level of sales

Production and imports

Lakh tonnes · FY2022-23 to FY2025-26

ProductionImports

FY2022-23 production is not available in the sources cited here; client platforms carry the full series from Department of Fertilizers releases.

Import share of urea supply

Imports ÷ (production + imports)

Prologue analysis

Year	Production	Imports	Import share

Sources: Government of India parliamentary disclosures and Department of Fertilizers (FY2023–FY2026). Derived indicators: Prologue.

Prologue Regional Market Attractiveness Index

Where demand is strongest and supply is thinnest.

Ten states scored on five weighted parameters. Change the weights and the ranking responds.

Method demo
Placeholder states and scores

State ranking

Composite score /100, from the weights on the right

Weights

Adjust to test priorities

Prologue model

In client engagements each parameter comes from published data: state fertilizer consumption (Department of Fertilizers), five-year growth, crop mix and acreage (Ministry of Agriculture), nutrient use per hectare, and supply presence from plant and dealer data.

Illustrative model scores, not observed state assessments. Potential underlying sources: Department of Fertilizers and Ministry of Agriculture.

Agrochemical intelligence

Screening molecules for portfolio fit.

Active ingredients across insecticides, herbicides and fungicides, scored on five factors for portfolio decisions.

Method demo
Placeholder molecules and scores

Opportunity screen

Score /100 on five factors

Molecule	Key crops	Market	Growth	Import dep.	Competition	Fit	Score

Placeholder molecules showing how the screen works. Client engagements score named active ingredients selected for the client's portfolio.

Profile

Click a row to compare

In client engagements, market and growth come from consumption and trade data, import dependence from Commerce Ministry HS-level imports, and competition from CIB&RC registrations and company disclosures.

Illustrative molecule scores, not market assessments. Potential underlying sources: Commerce Ministry, CIB&RC and company disclosures.

Competitor benchmarking

Thirty companies, one consistent scorecard.

Quarterly financials, valuation and operating metrics, refreshed within 10 working days of results.

Method demo
Anonymised placeholder companies

Competitor Performance Scorecard

Indian fertilizer peers · score /100

Sort by

Company	Focus	Growth	Margin	Balance sheet	Overall

Monitoring universe

Typical coverage in a client engagement

Indian fertilizer (10)
Listed producers, PSUs and co-operatives across urea, phosphatics and complex fertilizers

Indian agrochemical (10)
Technical manufacturers, formulators and multinational subsidiaries

Global (10)
Leading nitrogen, phosphate and potash producers and global crop protection majors

Metrics: revenue growth, EBITDA margin, PAT, net debt/EBITDA, ROCE, subsidy receivables, capacity utilisation, market capitalisation, P/E and EV/EBITDA.

Illustrative company scores, not actual peer rankings. Potential underlying sources: company reports and stock-exchange filings.

Data governance

Every number shows where it came from.

The platform runs on authoritative public sources. Prologue's work is in selecting, reconciling, calculating and interpreting.

Reported

Figures exactly as published by the source, with the reporting period and the date retrieved.

Prologue analysis

Derived and modelled

Indicators Prologue calculates from reported data (import share, utilisation, spreads) and indices built on documented, adjustable methods.

Method demo

Method demonstrations

Panels with placeholder names and scores that show how an index or screen works. Client engagements use sourced data and named entities.

Sources used on this page

Data	Source	Period
International fertilizer, gas and crude prices	World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet): October 2026 (Jul to Sep 2026 and annual averages), July 2026 (Apr to Jun 2026), May 2026 (Feb, Mar 2026 and 2025 quarters)	Monthly, Feb to Sep 2026; quarterly from Q1 2025
India urea production and imports, FY25 and FY26	Government data presented in Parliament (July 2026), as reported by India Seatrade News	FY2024-25, FY2025-26
India urea production and imports, FY23 and FY24	Lok Sabha Unstarred Question 3034, 13 Dec 2024	FY2022-23, FY2023-24
Installed urea capacity (269.42 lakh t)	Rajya Sabha written reply, as reported by Angel One, Mar 2026	2026
Urea sales FY25 (38.8 MMT)	As reported by The Indian Express	FY2024-25

Client platforms also draw on Department of Fertilizers monthly releases, PPAC, Commerce Ministry trade data, PPQS and CIB&RC, NSE and BSE filings, FAOSTAT and UN Comtrade. Licensed data feeds can be added where a client requires them.